Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9720…76b9 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$385 (-14%) realized −$385 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%15W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$74
14 days−$383
30 days−$356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$409
other 42% −$47
crypto 6% +$49
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +73.2% +56.7% 100% 100% +56.7%
≤30d 41 +28.3% +16.1% 32% 32% -23.1%
≤90d 55 +6.0% -4.1% 27% 27% -24.7%
all 55 +6.0% -4.1% 27% 27% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 27% -24.7%
10% -13.3% 27% -31.9%
15% -21.7% 27% -38.5%
20% -29.3% 25% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$33 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$385
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses15 / 40
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)55 / 59
History coverage54d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 55¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 63¢ 64¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$60 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 21 $147 −$145 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $153 −$150 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $212 +$103 +48%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$99 +874%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $91 +$56 +62%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $72 +$105 +146%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $122 +$89 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 +$38 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$69 +1116%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $83 −$62 -74%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$40 -39%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $41 −$4 -9%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$70 +344%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 +$47 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 02 $21 −$10 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw? May 12 $8 +$21 +271%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5) May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 10 $27 −$26 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $27 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $81 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $40 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 7d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $102 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $147 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 40¢ $153 8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $102 8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 8d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 8d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $91 9d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 9d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $111 9d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 9d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 39¢ $102 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $122 10d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 40¢ $72 10d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 11d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.28 · official $177.28 (match) · 103 history records