Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
97 0x971f…fbc8 other 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%96W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$50
14 days−$57
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$59
sports 34% +$19
crypto 12% −$25
world 6% −$38
finance 5% −$5
tech 4% +$42
politics 2% +$48
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -36.4% -42.5% 50% 50% -19.2%
≤30d 21 -23.7% -30.9% 33% 33% -26.7%
≤90d 74 -14.9% -23.0% 39% 39% -11.4%
all 208 -9.1% -17.8% 46% 44% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 44% -9.7%
10% -25.7% 40% -18.4%
15% -32.8% 34% -26.3%
20% -39.4% 28% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$19 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses96 / 112
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)208 / 219
History coverage187d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+44%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $33 +$8 (+31%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $19 −$6 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $127 +$27 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$25 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $31 +$58 +188%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $30 −$30 -98%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $39 −$38 -98%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $30 −$30 -98%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 +$27 +88%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 24 $32 −$2 -7%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 26, 2026? May 24 $37 −$1 -3%
Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $275M? May 24 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 20 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $30 +$43 +143%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $30 +$20 +65%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian May 09 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $16 +$24 +150%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $25 −$25 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? May 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 06 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $31 +$63 +206%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $201 +$27 +13%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-11? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-11? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Lacy score a goal in the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? Apr 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $41 +$59 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $136 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $30 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 22¢ $31 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 16¢ $10 3d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes $1 4d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes $1 4d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis $5 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $31 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 12d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 48¢ $30 13d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 13d
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 64¢ $30 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 17d
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 18d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.17 · official $239.72 (match) · 650 history records