Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
97 0x971f…1e98 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$216 (+31%) realized +$257 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$212
other 13% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +29.8% +17.4% 75% 75% +46.3%
≤30d 4 +29.8% +17.4% 75% 75% +46.3%
≤90d 4 +29.8% +17.4% 75% 75% +46.3%
all 4 +29.8% +17.4% 75% 75% +46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.4% 75% +46.3%
10% ← realistic here +6.2% 75% +32.3%
15% -4.1% 75% +19.5%
20% -13.5% 75% +7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$30 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.68 per $1 lost it wins $11.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$257
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $88 +$64 +73%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $341 +$241 +71%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $54 +$41 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $152 16m
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 49¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 48¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se SELL Red Feet 31¢ $37 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $88 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se SELL Red Feet 37¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 55¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 55¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 55¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 56¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Red Feet 49¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Red Feet 48¢ $147 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $582 3h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 55¢ $151 5h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 55¢ $90 5h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 56¢ $30 5h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 61¢ $99 5h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL Acend 100¢ $95 6h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 54¢ $11 8h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 55¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 55¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 55¢ $9 8h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 55¢ $9 8h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $12 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 55¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 55¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 55¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.46 · official $66.46 (match) · 29 history records