Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
97 0x971e…0499 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,309 (+1%) realized +$1,310 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$1,678per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,084now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$107
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$1,346
politics 40% −$94
economics 4% −$9
tech 1% −$7
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 44 -5.2% -14.2% 5% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 96 +3.3% -6.5% 10% 9% -8.8%
all 98 +3.2% -6.6% 10% 9% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 9% -8.8%
10% -15.5% 9% -17.6%
15% -23.7% 9% -25.5%
20% -31.2% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,467) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$5 · ×33.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.86 per $1 lost it wins $3.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$1,084
Realized+$1,310
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage91d
Avg bet$1,678
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $759 $759 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $326 $326 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,191 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,699 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,467 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,291 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $3,790 −$5 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $3,390 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $5,519 −$6 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $3,611 −$5 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $1,158 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $2,282 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $754 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $4,282 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $773 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,696 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,751 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,680 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $4,103 −$5 -0%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $72 +$41 +57%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,521 −$3 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $48 +$57 +119%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,300 −$2 -0%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $4,512 −$7 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 19 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,494 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,636 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $3,159 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $1,665 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $1,646 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $3,158 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 15 $1,451 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $759 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $849 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $850 3h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $695 7h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $696 8h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $744 29h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $745 32h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $878 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $879 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $769 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $770 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $718 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $719 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $326 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $784 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $785 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $850 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $851 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $829 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $830 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,153 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,154 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $910 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $912 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $910 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $911 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $952 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $954 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,156 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,158 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,084.46 · official $1,084.46 (match) · 326 history records