Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9719…356f sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$192 (-9%) realized −$190 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate79%56W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$23
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$23
other 28% −$225
sports 22% −$30
politics 2% −$8
world 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +4.9% -5.1% 94% 17% -11.2%
≤30d 58 -1.7% -11.0% 86% 14% -20.7%
≤90d 71 -7.3% -16.1% 79% 14% -21.4%
all 71 -7.3% -16.1% 79% 14% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 14% -21.4%
10% -24.2% 4% -28.9%
15% -31.5% 3% -35.8%
20% -38.2% 3% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$27 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$190
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses56 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage64d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Under 61¢ 58¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $94 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $90 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $89 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $75 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $65 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $55 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Austria vs. Guatemala end in a draw? May 31 $15 −$11 -69%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-11? May 31 $46 −$44 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-11? May 31 $191 −$186 -97%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? May 30 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Andorra win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $70 +$7 +10%
Spread: Andorra (-2.5) May 29 $23 +$1 +3%
Spread: Russia (-2.5) May 28 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: Saint-Etienne (-2.5) May 26 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? May 26 $2 $0 +3%
Exact Score: CA River Plate 0 - 0 CA Belgrano? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano: Both Teams to Score May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5) May 24 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw? May 24 $69 +$4 +6%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $10 $0 +5%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) May 24 $10 $0 +5%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $66 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30? May 23 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5) May 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Exact Score: Bologna FC 1909 3 - 2 FC Internazionale Milano? May 23 $20 $0 -1%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 5.5 May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw? May 23 $15 +$2 +11%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 4.5 May 23 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $5 $0 +3%
Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $5 $0 +6%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $22 +$2 +7%
Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 0.5 May 23 $3 $0 +3%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 5.5 May 22 $10 +$1 +6%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 May 22 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $65 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $60 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $60 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $55 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 12d
Will Austria vs. Guatemala end in a draw? SELL No 2¢ $5 18d
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18d
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 18d
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.02 · official $38.02 (match) · 211 history records