Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9719…8ab5 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$8 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$4
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$6
other 40% +$2
sports 10% −$8
weather 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 25% -11.4%
≤30d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 62% 38% -7.1%
≤90d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 62% 38% -7.1%
all 8 -0.8% -10.3% 62% 38% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 38% -7.1%
10% -18.9% 12% -16.0%
15% -26.7% 12% -24.1%
20% -33.9% 12% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage13d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 50¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 22 $171 −$2 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 +$1 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 +$3 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 +$5 +11%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $48 +$8 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $85 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 81¢ $8 36h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 73¢ $8 39h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $84 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $84 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $47 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 8d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $45 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 9d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 79¢ $51 9d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 79¢ $51 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $52 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $4 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $40 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.36 · official $70.36 (match) · 25 history records