trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -2.9% | -12.1% | 75% | 50% | -8.2% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -2.9% | -12.1% | 75% | 50% | -8.2% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -2.9% | -12.1% | 75% | 50% | -8.2% |
| all | 23 | -28.4% | -35.2% | 43% | 35% | -16.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -35.2% | 35% | -16.5% |
| 10% | -41.4% | 26% | -24.4% |
| 15% | -47.0% | 17% | -31.7% |
| 20% | -52.2% | 13% | -38.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 74¢ | 74¢ | $600 | $596 | −$4 (-1%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | Yes | 78¢ | 78¢ | $500 | $497 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? | Yes | 54¢ | 55¢ | $300 | $303 | +$3 (+1%) |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? | Yes | 48¢ | 46¢ | $100 | $95 | −$5 (-5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Jun 29 | $304 | +$136 | +45% |
| Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 29 | $153 | −$150 | -98% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 29 | $50 | +$4 | +8% |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Jun 29 | $50 | +$18 | +35% |
| Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting? | Jan 14 | $2,568 | −$39 | -2% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | Jan 14 | $100 | −$12 | -12% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 14 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Jan 14 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 13 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? | Nov 13 | $850 | −$305 | -36% |
| Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? | Nov 13 | $1,250 | −$613 | -49% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Nov 10 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| Solana above $170 on November 1? | Nov 10 | $70 | −$70 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October? | Nov 10 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Israel military response against Iran in October? | Nov 10 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election? | Nov 10 | $477 | +$55 | +12% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 10 | $1,530 | +$1,037 | +68% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Oct 25 | $1,399 | +$20 | +1% |
| Ethereum dips below $2,000 by Sept 30? | Oct 03 | $300 | +$215 | +72% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Sep 25 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday? | Sep 15 | $50 | +$9 | +17% |
| Will Biden's 538 approval reach 43% in September? | Sep 15 | $100 | +$22 | +22% |
| Will there be another debate? | Sep 13 | $100 | +$66 | +66% |