Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
97 0x9712…de7e crypto 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$870 (-15%) realized −$962 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%72W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$334
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$876
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -4.8% -13.8% 41% 36% -9.4%
≤30d 22 -4.8% -13.8% 41% 36% -9.4%
≤90d 22 -4.8% -13.8% 41% 36% -9.4%
all 165 -0.9% -10.3% 44% 42% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 42% -25.3%
10% -18.9% 39% -32.5%
15% -26.7% 37% -39.0%
20% -33.9% 35% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$32 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$962
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses72 / 93
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage241d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Down 52¢ 100¢ $100 $192 +$92 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$39 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$72 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$62 +80%
Solana Up or Down - November 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $64 +$56 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $123 −$18 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $125 +$115 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $62 +$56 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $132 +$108 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $248 −$28 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $72 +$48 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Nov 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Nov 07 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Nov 07 $10 +$6 +60%
Solana Up or Down - November 7, 10AM ET Nov 07 $15 +$14 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 10AM ET Nov 07 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 10AM ET Nov 07 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Nov 07 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Nov 07 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9AM ET Nov 07 $5 $0 -6%
Solana Up or Down - November 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Nov 07 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 07 $2 −$1 -50%
Solana Up or Down - November 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 07 $5 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 07 $5 −$1 -29%
Solana Up or Down - November 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Nov 07 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Nov 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8AM ET Nov 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Nov 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Nov 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Nov 07 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Nov 07 $5 −$1 -10%
Solana Up or Down - November 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Nov 07 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Nov 06 $10 −$9 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Nov 06 $10 +$5 +51%
Solana Up or Down - November 6, 11AM ET Nov 06 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Nov 06 $10 −$8 -84%
Solana Up or Down - November 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Nov 06 $6 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10AM ET Nov 06 $24 +$24 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Nov 06 $10 +$7 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $153 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $77 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $116 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $77 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $68 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $78 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $33 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $46 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $78 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $150 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $37 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $77 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $77 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.12 · official $192.12 (match) · 663 history records