Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
97 0x9712…b77e other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$94 (+21%) realized +$56 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$159
sports 13% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +30.3% +17.9% 75% 75% +44.7%
≤30d 4 +30.3% +17.9% 75% 75% +44.7%
≤90d 4 +30.3% +17.9% 75% 75% +44.7%
all 4 +30.3% +17.9% 75% 75% +44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.9% 75% +44.7%
10% +6.6% 75% +30.8%
15% -3.7% 75% +18.2%
20% -13.2% 50% +6.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$13 · ×4.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.61 per $1 lost it wins $13.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $100 $139 +$39 (+39%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 +$69 +104%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$41 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $130 +$65 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 27¢ $51 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 48¢ $66 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $102 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $61 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $195 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $130 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.66 · official $224.38 · 11 history records