Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x970d…1aef
other · 86 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$13 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$35 · open −$47
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses59 / 20
Open positions7
Markets (closed)79 / 86
History coverage102d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit15%
Chart Positions 7 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$9
14 days−$3
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $93 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $47 −$8 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $73 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $30 −$17 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $97 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $73 +$7 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $26 −$13 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $28 −$6 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $28 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $74 +$4 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $95 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $9 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 27 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $5 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $34 +$4 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $14 +$5 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $48 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% −$18
finance 7% +$7
world 6% $0
politics 1% +$6
economics 1% −$5
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 2m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 5h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 7h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 25h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 27h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 28h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 29h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $39 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 32h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 46h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 4d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 4d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.0% -7.7% 90% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 29 +0.3% -9.3% 86% 10% -8.5%
≤90d 73 +0.0% -9.5% 81% 25% -7.8%
all 79 -1.5% -10.9% 75% 23% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 23% -8.1%
10% -19.4% 10% -16.9%
15% -27.2% 3% -25.0%
20% -34.3% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.64 · official $22.64 (match) · 357 history records