Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x970b…f730 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%84W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$9
world 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 31 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 84 +0.6% -8.9% 100% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses84 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage234d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 82¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 17 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 8? Jun 08 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 3? Jun 06 $121 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +3%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? Jun 01 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 07 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $148 in April? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 24? May 01 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 23 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on April 16? Apr 19 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $122 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in March? Apr 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March? Apr 03 $5 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 24? Mar 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 19? Mar 20 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 17? Mar 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 14? Mar 16 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 8? Mar 12 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 1? Mar 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 27? Feb 28 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 3? Feb 05 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $117 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $6 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $122 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $122 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $121 15d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 21d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $114 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $116 37d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $5 42d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 97¢ $4 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $103 54d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $106 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $106 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $106 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 67d
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 67d
Will NVIDIA dip to $148 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 67d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $3 67d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $3 67d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $122 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $109 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $110 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $110 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 99¢ $113 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.80 · official $20.80 (match) · 178 history records