Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x9706…bc33 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 365d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$660 (-5%) realized −$515 · open −$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 33L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 365d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$2,537
other 49% +$249
world 1% −$100
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +37.6% +24.5% 38% 36% +17.5%
≤30d 50 +20.9% +9.4% 36% 34% +10.0%
≤90d 50 +20.9% +9.4% 36% 34% +10.0%
all 51 +18.5% +7.2% 35% 33% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 33% +9.8%
10% -3.1% 33% -0.7%
15% -12.4% 29% -10.3%
20% -21.0% 29% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$499 vs −$187 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

365d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$515
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions4
Markets (closed)51 / 62
History coverage365d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Will Japan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $205 +$1,567 +763%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1,012 +$628 +62%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $511 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $513 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $514 −$500 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $506 +$356 +70%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $511 +$519 +102%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $411 −$400 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $206 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $508 +$491 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $809 +$480 +59%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $505 −$505 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $103 +$975 +949%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $506 +$371 +73%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 +$121 +119%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $204 +$384 +188%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $506 +$300 +59%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $103 +$929 +904%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 19 $307 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $58 +$2 +3%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 +$400 +391%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$243 +238%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $202 +$69 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $347 −$346 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $420 +$128 +31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $107 −$105 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 49¢ $1,015 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1,012 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 26¢ $511 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $513 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 10¢ $514 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $102 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 29h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 62¢ $506 29h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $506 29h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 29h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 29h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? AND Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Se BUY 3¢ $103 30h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? AND Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Se BUY 3¢ $103 30h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $308 30h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,289 43h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 74¢ $515 44h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 66¢ $563 44h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $508 44h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $506 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.41 · official $255.41 (match) · 100 history records