Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9706…13b9 politics 548 markets active 1h ago coverage 640d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,222 (-8%) realized −$15,448 · open +$226
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%111W / 436L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1,110est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$706now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,591
7 days−$13,674
14 days−$10,376
30 days−$7,178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$7,616
other 12% −$2,293
politics 7% −$2,377
world 2% −$1,194
crypto 2% −$1,657
tech 0% −$229
economics 0% −$103
culture 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +7.9% -2.4% 68% 26% -24.8%
≤30d 59 -3.8% -13.0% 63% 29% -13.9%
≤90d 106 -33.2% -39.6% 37% 17% -15.5%
all 547 -30.8% -37.4% 20% 13% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 13% -17.2%
10% -43.4% 11% -25.1%
15% -48.9% 9% -32.3%
20% -53.9% 9% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$78 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

640d coverage
Net worth$706
Realized−$15,448
Unrealized+$226
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses111 / 436
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,110
Open positions1
Markets (closed)547 / 548
History coverage640d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 547 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Washington Mystics 68¢ 100¢ $480 $706 +$226 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $9,834 +$412 +4%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $5,301 +$313 +6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $4,571 +$423 +9%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $4,871 +$443 +9%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $6,364 −$48 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $606 +$310 +51%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $306 +$302 +99%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $123 +$184 +149%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $256 −$144 -56%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $4,658 −$150 -3%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $3,251 +$119 +4%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $908 −$6 -1%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $2,990 +$257 +9%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $4,820 +$644 +13%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $11,808 −$7,679 -65%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $9 +$1 +16%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $10,685 +$560 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $9,631 −$9,616 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $1,007 +$14 +1%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $1,553 +$714 +46%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 09 $482 −$18 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $252 −$249 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $1,010 −$7 -1%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $992 −$79 -8%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $1,124 −$70 -6%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $3,702 +$620 +17%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 07 $4,878 +$124 +2%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $83 −$6 -7%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 06 $4,934 +$380 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,595 +$438 +12%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $1,975 +$1,312 +66%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $2,006 +$123 +6%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $4,073 +$386 +10%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 03 $102 −$48 -47%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $5,659 +$761 +13%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $1,250 +$34 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $4,958 +$114 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $4,829 +$1,111 +23%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $1,079 −$1,067 -99%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $442 −$158 -36%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,033 +$198 +19%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries May 31 $128 −$88 -69%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,003 +$55 +5%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,000 +$72 +7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $930 +$69 +7%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 30 $4,934 +$1,021 +21%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $598 −$588 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky May 28 $759 +$416 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 68¢ $485 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 51¢ $273 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 51¢ $26 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 51¢ $22 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 51¢ $24 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 51¢ $26 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 51¢ $20 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 51¢ $26 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 51¢ $70 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 51¢ $497 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $5,994 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $27 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $833 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $6 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $33 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $20 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $46 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $46 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $134 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $34 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $46 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $10 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $117 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $117 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $13 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $24 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $5 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $8 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $54 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 93¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $706.00 · official $706.00 (match) · 2915 history records