Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9705…8c8e other 5 markets active 6d ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-7%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.1% -14.1% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 2 -7.2% -16.0% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤90d 4 -5.9% -14.8% 25% 25% -14.8%
all 4 -5.9% -14.8% 25% 25% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 25% -14.8%
10% -23.0% 0% -23.0%
15% -30.4% 0% -30.4%
20% -37.3% 0% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage35d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 -5%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -9%
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026? May 11 $1 $0 -31%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 10 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 6d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 6d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 6d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 6d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 11d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 12d
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 37d
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 37d
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 37d
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.73 · official $6.73 (match) · 13 history records