Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9705…2765 weather 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,145 (-9%) realized −$1,145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%62W / 4L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$1,146
crypto 3% +$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 27 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 66 -4.4% -13.5% 94% 0% -17.4%
all 66 -4.4% -13.5% 94% 0% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -17.4%
10% -21.8% 0% -25.3%
15% -29.3% 0% -32.5%
20% -36.3% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$292 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$1,145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses62 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)66 / 70
History coverage82d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $125 $125 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $188 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $138 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $188 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $133 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $160 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $186 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 5? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 4? Jun 04 $173 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $185 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on May 31? Jun 01 $185 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29? May 30 $185 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 28? May 29 $135 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 28? May 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 27? May 28 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 26? May 25 $184 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on May 24? May 23 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 27°C or below on May 18? May 22 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 18°C or below on May 16? May 15 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 3? May 03 $182 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 2? May 02 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 29? Apr 30 $182 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 28? Apr 28 $182 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 26? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 26? Apr 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on April 26? Apr 26 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on April 25? Apr 25 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 18°C on April 25? Apr 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C on April 24? Apr 24 $179 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 23? Apr 22 $178 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 22? Apr 22 $348 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 22? Apr 22 $239 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 21? Apr 21 $348 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 21? Apr 21 $586 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 20? Apr 20 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 20? Apr 20 $523 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 17? Apr 18 $585 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 16? Apr 17 $390 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 15? Apr 15 $192 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 15? Apr 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 15? Apr 15 $294 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $125 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $188 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $138 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $188 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $133 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $54 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $160 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $27 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $180 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $186 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $186 13d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $101 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $72 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $173 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $13 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $185 16d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $38 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $148 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $185 21d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $185 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $135 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $49 23d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $184 23d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $184 26d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $184 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.75 · official $187.75 (match) · 137 history records