Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

97 0x9703…c49a other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$119 (+21%) realized +$130 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip

Net edge+28%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate59%10W / 7L

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day6.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+33.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+47.1%	+33.1%	59%	59%	+12.9%
≤30d	17	+47.1%	+33.1%	59%	59%	+12.9%
≤90d	17	+47.1%	+33.1%	59%	59%	+12.9%
all	17	+47.1%	+33.1%	59%	59%	+12.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+33.1%	59%	+12.9%
10%	+20.3%	59%	+2.1%
15%	+8.7%	59%	-7.8%
20%	-1.9%	35%	-16.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -4% → late +93% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$84

Realized+$130

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses10 / 7

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage5d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day6.3

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	66¢	64¢	$85	$83	−$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde?	Yes	45¢	3¢	$10	$1	−$9 (-93%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$62	−$62	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$71	+$30	+43%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao?	Jun 21	$2	+$12	+574%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$20	+$15	+72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$94	+$43	+46%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$15	+$59	+404%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$31	−$1	-3%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$24	+$15	+62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$33	+$12	+36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$25	−$25	-100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$25	+$17	+69%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$21	+$9	+41%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$22	+$12	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$52	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$35	1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$52	11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$71	26h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$74	34h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$20	38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	38h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	SELL Yes	99¢	$74	47h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	19¢	$15	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	38¢	$22	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	38¢	$7	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	46¢	$10	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$10	2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$14	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	90¢	$1	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$32	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$25	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$25	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$21	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$33	5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	12¢	$3	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.14 · official $84.14 (match) · 45 history records