Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x9703…69c2
other · 134 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,080,401 +1259%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,376 · open +$154,890
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 388 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,376
7 days+$9,376
14 days+$9,376
30 days+$9,376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 79¢ 80¢ $44,495 $44,657 +$163 (+0%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ $1,663 $33,715 +$32,052 (+1927%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 76¢ 76¢ $26,973 $27,248 +$275 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $14,141 $15,811 +$1,670 (+12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ $3,566 $14,924 +$11,358 (+318%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $11,430 $14,829 +$3,399 (+30%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 80¢ $990 $14,236 +$13,246 (+1338%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ $692 $14,079 +$13,387 (+1935%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $7,899 $11,844 +$3,946 (+50%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $9,978 $10,045 +$67 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ $2,119 $9,981 +$7,862 (+371%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 84¢ $9,588 $9,689 +$100 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 52¢ 52¢ $8,400 $8,481 +$81 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ $436 $8,390 +$7,955 (+1827%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $7,902 $8,158 +$256 (+3%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 75¢ 76¢ $8,091 $8,145 +$54 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $3,684 $7,954 +$4,270 (+116%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 79¢ 78¢ $7,711 $7,687 −$23 (-0%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $7,314 $7,293 −$21 (-0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ $384 $7,013 +$6,629 (+1728%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6,832 $6,831 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 46¢ 46¢ $6,570 $6,642 +$71 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $5,570 $6,574 +$1,004 (+18%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 91¢ 92¢ $6,491 $6,530 +$38 (+1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $692 $6,508 +$5,816 (+841%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $2,724 −$2,724 -100%
Will Ernest Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 12 $339 −$535 -158%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $220 +$973 +443%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $9,346 −$9,293 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $2,027 −$2,027 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 12 $9,040 −$9,923 -110%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $612 −$628 -103%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $5,045 −$5,045 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 12 $480 −$480 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $337 −$34 -10%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Jun 12 $131 −$131 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 12 $8,284 −$8,284 -100%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $56 +$4,893 +8762%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 +$6,050 +1589550%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2,519 +$365 +14%
Will Nebraska win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 12 $59 −$41 -69%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $2,168 −$2,620 -121%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $346 −$451 -130%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 12 $8,111 −$8,043 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $826 −$826 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $52 +$87 +166%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $17 +$17,438 +102562%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 American League Championship? Jun 12 $356 +$2,142 +601%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $4,415 −$4,057 -92%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $4,791 −$5,015 -105%
Will Baylor win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 12 $45 +$2,700 +5968%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $557 −$557 -100%
Will Notre Dame win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 12 $419 +$1,820 +435%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jun 12 $1,816 +$1,292 +71%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $756 −$756 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1,678 −$1,678 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $5,829 −$5,829 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $2,156 +$18,576 +862%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Jun 12 $2 +$3,574 +171702%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 12 $51 −$49 -95%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $17 +$12,340 +72579%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $21 +$578 +2743%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $329 −$329 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 12 $184 −$184 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $953 −$953 -100%
Utah vs. Ducks Jun 12 $2,759 −$2,759 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $628 −$601 -96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $6,100 −$6,100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 82% +$154,841
sports 16% +$355
world 1% +$57
crypto 0% +$22
politics 0% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $0 1m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 1m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $143 1m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $7 2m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 44¢ $39 2m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $0 2m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 3m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 3m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 4m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $25 4m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $61 4m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 12¢ $14 5m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $0 5m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $43 5m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $12 6m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $35 6m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $28 6m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 6m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $0 6m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 40¢ $33 6m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $3 7m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $4 7m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $4 8m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $20 8m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $5 8m
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 43¢ $4 9m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $2 9m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $20 9m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $2 9m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $30 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+236.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +272.3% +236.8% 29% 29% -41.4%
≤30d 89 +272.3% +236.8% 29% 29% -41.4%
≤90d 89 +272.3% +236.8% 29% 29% -41.4%
all 89 +272.3% +236.8% 29% 29% -41.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3429.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +236.8% 29% -41.4%
10% +204.6% 27% -47.0%
15% ← realistic here +175.2% 27% -52.2%
20% +148.2% 27% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623,871.69 · official $623,903.18 (match) · 3500 history records