Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

97 0x9702…7c65 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$24 (-7%) realized +$14 · open −$38

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$36per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-1.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+9.1%	-1.3%	50%	50%	+9.4%
≤30d	2	+9.1%	-1.3%	50%	50%	+9.4%
≤90d	2	+9.1%	-1.3%	50%	50%	+9.4%
all	2	+9.1%	-1.3%	50%	50%	+9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.3%	50%	+9.4%
10%	-10.8%	50%	-1.1%
15%	-19.4%	0%	-10.6%
20%	-27.3%	0%	-19.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$0 · ×82.53 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×82.53 per $1 lost it wins $82.53

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$269

Realized+$14

Unrealized−$38

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions7

Markets (closed)2 / 9

History coverage8d

Avg bet$36

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu	Emma Raducanu	68¢	56¢	$216	$178	−$38 (-17%)
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka	Naomi Osaka	83¢	82¢	$85	$85	−$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	100¢	100¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	100¢	100¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	98¢	98¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	96¢	96¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	99¢	98¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 28	$1	$0	-4%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy	Jun 27	$17	+$4	+22%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$1	1h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka	BUY Naomi Osaka	83¢	$86	1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu	BUY Emma Raducanu	61¢	$35	12h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu	BUY Emma Raducanu	70¢	$183	17h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy	BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev	78¢	$17	3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$2	6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	99¢	$1	6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$1	6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$1	6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$1	6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	96¢	$1	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.80 · official $268.83 (match) · 12 history records