Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96fc…e5f8 crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$488 (-8%) realized −$279 · open −$209
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%37W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days−$329
14 days−$329
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$254
other 40% −$113
sports 15% −$616
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -33.6% -39.9% 25% 25% -45.9%
≤30d 8 -33.6% -39.9% 25% 25% -45.9%
≤90d 8 -33.6% -39.9% 25% 25% -45.9%
all 67 +18.0% +6.7% 55% 46% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 46% -13.9%
10% -3.5% 42% -22.2%
15% -12.8% 34% -29.7%
20% -21.4% 33% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$64 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized−$279
Unrealized−$209
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses37 / 30
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 73
History coverage156d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $380 $205 −$175 (-46%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 17¢ $102 $68 −$34 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $26 +$63 +246%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $216 +$184 +85%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$61 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $263 −$260 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $76 −$74 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $78 −$77 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2AM ET Feb 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5AM ET Feb 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3AM ET Feb 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6AM ET Feb 23 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4AM ET Feb 23 $166 −$29 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7AM ET Feb 08 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3AM ET Feb 08 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10AM ET Feb 08 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8AM ET Feb 08 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9AM ET Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5AM ET Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4AM ET Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6AM ET Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1AM ET Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2AM ET Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4PM ET Feb 05 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5PM ET Feb 05 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10AM ET Feb 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3PM ET Feb 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9AM ET Feb 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12PM ET Feb 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11AM ET Feb 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6AM ET Feb 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6PM ET Feb 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1PM ET Feb 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2PM ET Feb 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4AM ET Feb 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2AM ET Feb 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12AM ET Feb 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7AM ET Feb 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5AM ET Feb 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1AM ET Feb 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 04 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11PM ET Feb 04 $99 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3AM ET Feb 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 03 $86 −$86 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 01 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 01 $45 +$53 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 31 $40 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12PM ET Jan 30 $100 +$67 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 29 $20 +$285 +1424%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 59m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 7¢ $5 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $53 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 34¢ $36 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $216 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 28¢ $26 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $62 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 6¢ $13 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 6¢ $4 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 6¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 7¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 7¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 7¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 7¢ $9 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 8¢ $24 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 11¢ $15 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 11¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $24 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $24 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $36 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $54 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 26¢ $102 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $39 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $37 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 34¢ $102 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.00 · official $263.00 · 273 history records