Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96f9…faba other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$512 (-8%) realized −$505 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate45%26W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$9
14 days+$57
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$562
other 35% +$7
weather 12% −$2
sports 3% +$4
politics 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -26.2% -33.2% 54% 15% -12.1%
≤30d 55 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 18% -6.0%
≤90d 58 -11.0% -19.5% 45% 17% -17.3%
all 58 -11.0% -19.5% 45% 17% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 17% -17.3%
10% -27.2% 16% -25.2%
15% -34.2% 12% -32.5%
20% -40.7% 10% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$505
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses26 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)58 / 65
History coverage39d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 27? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? No 87¢ 76¢ $44 $39 −$5 (-12%)
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $4 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $90 +$2 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$29 +134%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $37 +$2 +4%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 +$6 +72%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Discord IPO before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 -15%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 +$17 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $27 +$7 +27%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -21%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$1 -18%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$22 +650%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$19 +97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 +$9 +29%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $18 $0 -2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $8 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +136%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $66 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $65 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $31 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 98¢ $52 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 17h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 17h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 25¢ $12 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 26¢ $13 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 98¢ $90 28h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 89¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 90¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 69¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 52¢ $26 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $27 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 14¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 99¢ $55 3d
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY No 87¢ $44 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 71¢ $15 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 96¢ $37 9d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $3 9d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 9d
Discord IPO before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $3 9d
Discord IPO before 2027? BUY No 40¢ $3 9d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $27 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.83 · official $97.80 (match) · 124 history records