Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96f7…d6ae sports 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (218 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63,626 (+18%) realized +$62,169 · open +$1,457
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%74W / 101L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$2,224per market
Trades / day217.9pace
Fees−$5,989est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$10,059now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$31,126
other 10% +$12,158
world 9% −$660
crypto 3% −$4,205
politics 1% +$747
tech 0% +$339
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (218 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +7.6% -2.7% 44% 40% -6.2%
≤30d 175 +3.5% -6.3% 42% 39% -2.3%
≤90d 175 +3.5% -6.3% 42% 39% -2.3%
all 175 +3.5% -6.3% 42% 39% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover217.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 39% -2.3%
10% -15.3% 37% -11.7%
15% ← realistic here -23.5% 35% -20.2%
20% -31.0% 33% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$2,761) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,200 vs −$1,369 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$10,059
Realized+$62,169
Unrealized+$1,457
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses74 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$5,989
Open positions6
Markets (closed)175 / 159
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$2,224
Trades / day217.9
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $5,233 $5,516 +$283 (+5%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 28¢ 35¢ $2,266 $2,839 +$573 (+25%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 56¢ 80¢ $760 $1,100 +$339 (+45%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? No 42¢ 76¢ $211 $388 +$177 (+84%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 54¢ 94¢ $108 $188 +$80 (+74%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 69¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 20 $1,534 −$1,534 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $636 −$636 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $778 −$778 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 20 $721 −$705 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $334 −$334 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $616 −$616 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $241 −$241 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $927 −$927 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $551 −$551 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $345 −$345 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $2,536 −$2,287 -90%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $887 −$887 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 20 $239 −$239 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 20 $384 −$384 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $350 −$350 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 20 $100 +$456 +457%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 20 $527 −$527 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 20 $1,174 −$1,174 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $4,888 +$3,051 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,428 +$1,051 +74%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $5,481 −$5,019 -92%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,510 +$3,651 +146%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3,100 −$3,100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4,529 −$2,372 -52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,453 −$2,453 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,278 −$1,256 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,880 +$2,120 +113%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,892 +$3,992 +138%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $544 +$567 +104%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $3,656 −$3,656 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $7,134 −$4,569 -64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $778 −$778 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $694 +$142 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $4,224 +$220 +5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,161 +$6,381 +153%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $7,519 +$20 +0%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4,777 +$778 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $8,428 +$2,745 +33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,352 −$2,347 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,420 −$1,420 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $522 −$522 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2,719 +$324 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,607 +$1,393 +87%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $580 +$420 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 36m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 36m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 37m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 40m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 40m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $383 41m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 40¢ $389 46m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 39¢ $880 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 39¢ $390 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 36¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 36¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 36¢ $126 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,058.52 · official $10,058.52 (match) · 3500 history records