Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96f0…d15c weather 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-1%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate83%122W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$38
sports 1% +$9
crypto 0% $0
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 30 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 105 +3.2% -6.6% 96% 7% -9.2%
all 147 -1.5% -10.9% 83% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 10% -10.2%
10% -19.4% 10% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 10% -26.6%
20% -34.3% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses122 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)147 / 149
History coverage110d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 7? Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 1? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 31? Jun 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 29? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 25? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 24? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 23? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 22? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 20? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on May 17? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 16? May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on May 15? May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 43°C or higher on May 14? May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 42°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 12? May 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 11? May 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 11? May 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 10? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 10? May 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on May 9? May 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on May 8? May 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on May 7? May 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on May 6? May 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on May 5? May 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on May 4? May 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or below on May 3? May 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on May 2? May 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 1? May 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 30? May 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 29? Apr 30 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $42 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $41 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $41 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $41 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $41 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $41 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $41 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $41 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $41 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $41 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $14 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $27 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $41 14d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $41 15d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $41 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $41 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $41 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $41 18d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $41 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $40 21d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $40 22d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $40 23d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or higher on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 23d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $8 24d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $32 24d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $40 25d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $40 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $40 27d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $40 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 286 history records