Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x96f0…820b sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$114 (-1%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$519per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$17
tech 17% +$1
sports 3% −$73
crypto 0% −$10
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -46.5% -51.6% 50% 0% -54.1%
≤90d 6 -46.5% -51.6% 50% 0% -54.1%
all 18 -19.8% -27.4% 50% 11% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 11% -10.6%
10% -34.3% 11% -19.1%
15% -40.7% 11% -26.9%
20% -46.5% 11% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,570) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$27 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage149d
Avg bet$519
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kamatamare Sanuki vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Fredrikstad FK (-1.5) Jun 04 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 1? Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026? May 18 $15 −$15 -100%
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 5.5 May 18 $19 +$1 +4%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Feb 22 $9 +$1 +9%
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Feb 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner Feb 21 $112 +$57 +52%
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Feb 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 20 $64 +$2 +4%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 20 $109 −$25 -23%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference? Feb 19 $1,575 $0 +0%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $1,570 +$2 +0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $3,032 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 19 $1,604 +$7 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 19 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 03 $5 +$4 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $9 1h
Kamatamare Sanuki vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $14 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 1? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 15d
Spread: Fredrikstad FK (-1.5) BUY Sandefjord Fotball 91¢ $9 22d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $10 29d
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $19 36d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 58d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $9 115d
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner BUY FaZe Vegas 66¢ $18 115d
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner BUY FaZe Vegas 66¢ $94 115d
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Disguised 42¢ $69 115d
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Disguised 42¢ $12 115d
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Disguised 40¢ $39 116d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $1 116d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $66 116d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $64 116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $20 116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $21 116d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 93¢ $715 116d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 93¢ $859 116d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 93¢ $842 116d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 93¢ $733 116d
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $1,571 116d
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,570 116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $46 116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $18 116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $88 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,466 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $512 117d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $953 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.35 · official $9.35 (match) · 50 history records