Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96ef…b406 sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,104 (-2%) realized −$1,103 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate71%25W / 10L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,580per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$516est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +18.8% +7.5% 71% 69% -9.8%
≤30d 35 +18.8% +7.5% 71% 69% -9.8%
≤90d 35 +18.8% +7.5% 71% 69% -9.8%
all 35 +18.8% +7.5% 71% 69% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.5% 69% -9.8%
10% -2.8% 57% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -12.2% 29% -26.3%
20% -20.8% 17% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$2,428) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$533 vs −$1,346 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$1,103
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses25 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$516
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1,580
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Under 79¢ 81¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $1,516 +$145 +10%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $537 +$319 +60%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $5,180 +$720 +14%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $233 +$80 +34%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $686 +$246 +36%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $8,667 +$2,609 +30%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $55 −$55 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $164 +$42 +26%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $268 +$40 +15%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $3,213 +$2,211 +69%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $123 +$37 +30%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $2,756 +$752 +27%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $2,731 +$642 +24%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $870 +$455 +52%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $42 −$41 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $733 +$657 +90%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1,147 −$1,132 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $7,625 −$7,597 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $454 +$424 +93%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3,292 +$9 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $2,428 +$1,073 +44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2,328 +$504 +22%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2,722 +$708 +26%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $874 −$870 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2,894 +$646 +22%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $626 +$154 +25%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $402 +$160 +40%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $2,001 −$1,990 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1,691 −$1,672 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 −$49 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $219 +$83 +38%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,717 +$438 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $21 +$162 +785%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $147 10m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $6 15m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $5,180 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $537 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1,516 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $233 5h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $11 23h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $686 25h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 78¢ $3,075 30h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 78¢ $250 30h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $2,426 30h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $2,916 30h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 31h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $45 31h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $164 46h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $1,294 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $26 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $670 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $17 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $4 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $82 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $297 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $268 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $817 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $123 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $602 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.43 · official $150.43 (match) · 181 history records