Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
96 0x96ea…639a sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$301 (-3%) realized −$301 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%27W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,439
7 days−$1,112
14 days−$353
30 days−$632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$189
other 31% −$822
world 2% −$204
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +47.2% +33.2% 36% 36% -37.2%
≤30d 48 +21.1% +9.6% 40% 40% -17.2%
≤90d 68 +8.9% -1.5% 40% 40% -18.5%
all 68 +8.9% -1.5% 40% 40% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 40% -18.5%
10% -10.9% 34% -26.3%
15% -19.5% 31% -33.5%
20% -27.4% 26% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$94 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses27 / 41
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage83d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $296 −$291 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $495 −$199 -40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $407 +$87 +21%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $342 −$334 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $296 −$290 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $142 −$140 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $227 +$147 +65%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $151 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $77 +$173 +226%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $204 +$107 +52%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $106 −$104 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$126 +246%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $253 +$153 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 −$65 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$170 +1657%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$99 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs Fritz Jun 12 $49 +$50 +103%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $96 −$45 -47%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 −$19 -19%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $97 +$121 +125%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $19 −$19 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $122 +$97 +79%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $59 +$63 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -95%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 09 $101 −$17 -17%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 07 $207 +$652 +316%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $49 −$48 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $76 −$28 -37%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $25 −$25 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $45 +$58 +128%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $151 −$150 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $139 +$58 +41%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $496 +$387 +78%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $344 +$83 +24%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 31 $76 −$7 -9%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $467 −$460 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 May 30 $402 +$68 +17%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $51 −$15 -29%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 29 $202 +$137 +68%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 24 $336 −$166 -50%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $173 −$170 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre May 06 $27 −$27 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 26 $108 −$80 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $296 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 29¢ $296 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $343 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $407 7h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $342 10h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $296 28h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 18¢ $45 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 51¢ $203 30h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 49¢ $142 30h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $227 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 37h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $77 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes $31 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $91 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 56¢ $289 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $113 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $106 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 77¢ $177 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $20 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 22¢ $31 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $406 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $253 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $66 6d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records