Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x96e8…2770 other 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$158 (+7%) realized +$156 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%39W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$13
14 days−$74
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$38
crypto 25% +$31
sports 18% +$50
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -7.2% -16.0% 44% 44% -7.7%
≤30d 84 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 36% -11.8%
≤90d 90 +13.3% +2.5% 43% 40% -7.8%
all 90 +13.3% +2.5% 43% 40% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 40% -7.8%
10% -7.3% 38% -16.6%
15% -16.3% 37% -24.7%
20% -24.5% 34% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$17 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses39 / 51
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage37d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$16 +41%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $37 −$37 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$29 +94%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$31 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 19? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 +$31 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$20 +65%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$30 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$14 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 +$58 +200%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$28 -54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 +$7 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $27 +$29 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $26 −$19 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $26 −$10 -38%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$30 +173%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$16 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $19 −$15 -79%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $42 −$37 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $153 −$92 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $52 +$62 +120%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $66 −$17 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $31 +$42 +132%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $21 +$17 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $51 −$34 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $52 +$63 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $52 −$16 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $21 +$7 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $52 −$15 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 7? Jun 04 $11 +$61 +571%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 5? Jun 02 $21 +$12 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $57 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $57 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $37 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $15 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $20 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $30 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $35 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 98¢ $50 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $30 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $14 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $87 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $29 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $23 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 84¢ $30 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $56 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.76 · official $57.76 (match) · 191 history records