Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
96 0x96e6…6209 other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$11
politics 19% −$4
sports 9% +$11
economics 4% $0
world 3% $0
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -2.2% -11.5% 12% 7% -9.6%
all 101 -2.2% -11.5% 12% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 7% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 7% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 7% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 89
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage91d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 06 $76 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $48 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $328 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $180 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $323 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $174 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 05 $167 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $172 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $172 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $186 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $182 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $476 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $184 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $184 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $185 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $175 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $364 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $370 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $522 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $353 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $185 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 4h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 27h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 27h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 30h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 43h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 45h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $103 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 23d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 23d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 25d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 26d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $24 29d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $24 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $76 30d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 30d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.15 · official $148.15 (match) · 290 history records