Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
96 0x96e2…d8f6 sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,695 (-11%) realized −$1,226 · open −$469
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,236
7 days−$2,122
14 days−$2,122
30 days−$2,122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,649
crypto 16% −$329
other 14% −$519
tech 2% −$31
politics 2% +$962
world 1% −$91
economics 1% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -11.2% -19.6% 45% 41% -28.6%
≤30d 29 -11.2% -19.6% 45% 41% -28.6%
≤90d 29 -11.2% -19.6% 45% 41% -28.6%
all 45 +39.7% +26.4% 42% 40% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.4% 40% -19.1%
10% +14.3% 36% -26.8%
15% +3.3% 29% -33.9%
20% -6.8% 29% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +104% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$273 vs −$250 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$3,681
Realized−$1,226
Unrealized−$469
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions13
Markets (closed)45 / 58
History coverage340d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2,000 $1,612 −$388 (-19%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $450 $445 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ 64¢ $400 $391 −$9 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $350 $346 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 74¢ 60¢ $200 $164 −$36 (-18%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $75 $66 −$9 (-12%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $442 +$94 +21%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $651 +$910 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $366 +$303 +83%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $514 −$310 -60%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $406 −$400 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $607 −$600 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $572 −$560 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $606 −$600 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $409 −$400 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $506 +$327 +65%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $256 −$250 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $307 +$943 +307%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $304 +$196 +65%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $304 −$224 -74%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$197 +97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $201 +$58 +29%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Astronomer Divorce Parlay Jun 12 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025? Jun 12 $91 +$9 +10%
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? Aug 23 $50 +$405 +809%
Ethereum all time high before October? Aug 23 $120 +$346 +288%
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30? Aug 22 $43 +$670 +1567%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Aug 06 $200 +$63 +32%
Congressman joins the America Party before August? Aug 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 27 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Jul 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Jul 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Energy and Jul 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Trump say "PSG", "Paris", or "Chelsea" this week? Jul 14 $50 +$17 +35%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 13 $40 +$117 +293%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 13 $100 −$12 -12%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Jul 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jul 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $76 1h
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 1h
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 21¢ $77 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 74¢ $202 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $355 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $404 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $457 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 88¢ $630 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 87¢ $39 21h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 10¢ $185 21h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $406 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $607 25h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $442 25h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $572 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $606 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $409 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $366 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $651 25h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $256 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $507 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $506 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $506 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 15¢ $74 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,680.74 · official $3,678.04 (match) · 141 history records