Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96db…8b8f weather 332 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+2%) realized +$32 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate80%264W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$13
14 days+$1
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% +$29
crypto 17% −$4
other 1% −$10
world 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +0.0% -9.5% 89% 20% -8.3%
≤30d 321 -1.3% -10.7% 81% 42% -8.5%
≤90d 330 -1.9% -11.3% 80% 42% -8.8%
all 330 -1.9% -11.3% 80% 42% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 42% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 13% -17.6%
15% -27.5% 5% -25.5%
20% -34.6% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses264 / 66
Open positions2
Markets (closed)330 / 332
History coverage32d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 11 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $32 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$3 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $33 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$5 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 08 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $30 59m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $33 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $16 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $15 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $20 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $30 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $30 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $7 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $30 29h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $6 30h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY No 98¢ $6 35h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $30 38h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $31 38h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $30 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.09 · official $44.09 (match) · 900 history records