Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

96 0x96db…ae17 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-9.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	3	-0.0%	-9.6%	67%	33%	-13.9%
all	3	-0.0%	-9.6%	67%	33%	-13.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.6%	33%	-13.9%
10%	-18.2%	33%	-22.1%
15%	-26.1%	33%	-29.6%
20%	-33.4%	0%	-36.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$25 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.78 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage

Net worth$169

Realized−$6

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage66d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$70	$70	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?	Apr 21	$50	+$19	+39%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Apr 17	$60	−$25	-42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Apr 13	$5	$0	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$72	1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?	SELL No	90¢	$69	57d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	SELL No	40¢	$35	61d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	BUY No	69¢	$60	64d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?	BUY No	65¢	$50	65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$5	65d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.98 · official $168.98 (match) · 8 history records