Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x96db…499f
sports · 366 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$243 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$245 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$60
Realized−$245
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses186 / 175
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions5
Markets (closed)361 / 366
History coverage31d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 5 History 361 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$94
14 days−$143
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 60¢ 59¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $277 +$34 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$2 -4%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 −$2 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$43 -84%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 13 $12 −$1 -9%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $15 −$1 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 13 $12 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $69 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $19 +$3 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $20 +$17 +84%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $10 +$17 +175%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$26 +262%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $12 +$8 +64%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 +$5 +109%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $10 −$2 -22%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $10 −$2 -22%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $10 −$4 -43%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$15 +291%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $5 +$10 +197%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$91
other 13% −$94
crypto 8% −$73
world 4% +$46
politics 2% −$19
tech 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 10m
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 60¢ $15 41m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $18 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 87¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 72¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 64¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 71¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 43¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 58¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 58¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 77¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 80¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 80¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 80¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 53¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 70¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 65¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 84¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 45¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 32¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 35¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 33¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 30¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 23¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 77¢ $65 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 +12.7% +1.9% 53% 47% -4.0%
≤30d 342 +4.4% -5.6% 51% 45% -12.5%
≤90d 361 +3.9% -6.0% 52% 45% -13.8%
all 361 +3.9% -6.0% 52% 45% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 45% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 35% -22.0%
15% -23.2% 29% -29.6%
20% -30.7% 22% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.22 · official $61.19 (match) · 1222 history records