Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96d8…65d9 other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$16
politics 26% −$10
sports 11% −$58
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 117 -3.7% -12.9% 5% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 2% -9.8%
10% -21.2% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage136d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $228 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $255 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,211 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $246 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $242 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $249 $0 -0%
Will Belgium be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 11 $269 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 10 $236 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $274 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $274 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $259 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $261 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $189 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $430 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $422 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $478 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $252 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $456 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $492 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $844 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $45 13d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $45 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 16d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 16d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 17d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 19d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 19d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $25 20d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $25 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 21d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 28d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 28d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $228 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 350 history records