Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96d8…4540 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-15%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$13
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$18
other 2% −$1
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.6% -12.8% 31% 23% -20.8%
≤30d 52 -3.7% -12.9% 29% 27% -29.2%
≤90d 52 -3.7% -12.9% 29% 27% -29.2%
all 52 -3.7% -12.9% 29% 27% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 27% -29.2%
10% -21.2% 23% -36.0%
15% -28.9% 23% -42.2%
20% -35.8% 21% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage24d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 24 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 24 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 24 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 24 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 24 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 23 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 23 $2 +$9 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 23 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 23 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 23 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 23d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.28 · official $1.28 (match) · 85 history records