Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x96d8…ce3a world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$12 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$31
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -12.0%
all 5 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -12.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -20.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -28.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage11d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $428 $425 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 26 $453 −$25 -6%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $458 −$5 -1%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $44 +$3 +7%
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.34 · official $425.34 (match) · 18 history records