Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96d2…2348 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$135 (-27%) realized −$124 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -99% what you keep after slip
Net edge-99%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$212
other 44% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-99.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -98.0% -98.2% 0% 0% -98.2%
all 10 -99.0% -99.1% 0% 0% -99.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -99.1% 0% -99.6%
10% -99.2% 0% -99.6%
15% -99.3% 0% -99.7%
20% -99.3% 0% -99.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -99% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$22 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$124
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)10 / 17
History coverage112d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-21%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 10 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 10 $45 −$22 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Feb 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Feb 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 26 $90 −$44 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 27m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 28m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 28m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 29m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 7h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $1 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.20 · official $193.20 (match) · 64 history records