Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96cd…eba4 crypto 719 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%367W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$6
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 +1.9% -7.8% 53% 53% -7.7%
≤30d 554 -3.4% -12.6% 51% 51% -12.2%
≤90d 719 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 51% -13.1%
all 719 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 51% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 51% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 51% -21.4%
15% -29.4% 51% -29.0%
20% -36.3% 51% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses367 / 352
Open positions0
Markets (closed)719 / 719
History coverage36d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 719 Trades
no open positions (100 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1348 history records