Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96cc…f91a sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+6%) realized +$78 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%27W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$78
14 days+$72
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$117
other 11% −$63
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +29.2% +16.9% 50% 50% +45.9%
≤30d 53 +15.6% +4.6% 45% 43% +11.9%
≤90d 70 -6.5% -15.4% 37% 36% -2.0%
all 72 -7.4% -16.2% 38% 36% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 36% -3.8%
10% -24.2% 33% -13.0%
15% -31.5% 31% -21.4%
20% -38.2% 28% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses27 / 45
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage99d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Top Esports Challenger 6¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$45 +147%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$20 +197%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$24 +116%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 +$5 +105%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$39 +378%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 30 $2 +$5 +238%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $10 +$33 +325%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $15 +$40 +259%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $15 +$43 +284%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $5 +$7 +129%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 24 $13 +$32 +238%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 24 $15 +$12 +81%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 24 $25 +$10 +39%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 23 $20 +$37 +180%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $10 +$8 +80%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 23 $20 +$17 +86%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 22 $10 +$4 +44%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 22 $10 +$14 +140%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 19 $20 −$5 -25%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 May 19 $120 +$20 +16%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 17 $62 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 3¢ $5 1h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 10¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 48¢ $10 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 25¢ $10 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $10 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $10 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $10 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $10 26h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 54¢ $10 46h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 35¢ $10 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $10 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $5 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 30¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $44 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 13¢ $10 7d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $5 8d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 14¢ $5 8d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 33¢ $5 8d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 45¢ $10 8d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 52¢ $10 8d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 16¢ $5 8d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 48¢ $5 9d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 14¢ $5 9d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 38¢ $5 9d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 16¢ $10 14d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $61 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 23¢ $10 16d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY DN SOOPers 29¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 136 history records