Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96cb…75cb sports 516 markets active 1h ago coverage 381d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$792 (-3%) realized −$788 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%172W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$359est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 381d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,905
crypto 14% −$780
other 6% −$301
politics 0% −$53
world 0% −$14
culture 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -47.8% -52.7% 29% 29% -55.9%
≤30d 58 -0.1% -9.6% 41% 41% -19.7%
≤90d 287 -16.5% -24.5% 34% 34% -16.3%
all 515 -6.6% -15.5% 33% 33% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 33% -20.3%
10% -23.6% 32% -27.9%
15% -31.0% 31% -34.9%
20% -37.8% 28% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$40 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$788
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses172 / 343
Est. fees paid−$359
Open positions1
Markets (closed)515 / 516
History coverage381d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 329 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $67 +$33 +49%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $138 −$19 -14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $55 +$64 +117%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $62 −$61 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $71 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $35 −$3 -10%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -97%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $132 +$80 +61%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $66 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $68 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $72 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $74 +$69 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $50 +$23 +46%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$18 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $147 +$71 +49%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $118 +$144 +122%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $43 +$51 +120%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $60 +$13 +22%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $13 +$23 +172%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $111 +$73 +66%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $31 +$58 +188%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $29 +$32 +107%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $100 +$129 +129%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Cobolli Jun 03 $51 +$51 +101%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $53 −$52 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 02 $99 −$98 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $68 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $45 +$48 +108%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $51 +$27 +54%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $91 −$91 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $99 +$53 +54%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $60 +$42 +70%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $49 +$40 +80%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $50 +$59 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $99 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $67 1h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 50¢ $128 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $19 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 53¢ $174 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $119 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 95¢ $119 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $55 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $62 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $71 5d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 28¢ $100 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 30¢ $31 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 47¢ $102 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $35 9d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato SELL Katarzyna Kawa 88¢ $212 9d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato BUY Katarzyna Kawa 54¢ $132 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $61 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 28¢ $68 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 27¢ $72 9d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 28¢ $51 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 54¢ $142 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 27¢ $74 9d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 60¢ $73 9d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 40¢ $50 9d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 14¢ $29 9d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 67¢ $69 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.50 · official $19.50 (match) · 1244 history records