Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
96 0x96c9…c46f crypto 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+2%) realized +$38 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%206W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$11
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$51
politics 8% −$13
finance 2% +$1
other 2% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 3% -9.0%
≤30d 210 +1.5% -8.1% 98% 2% -8.3%
≤90d 210 +1.5% -8.1% 98% 2% -8.3%
all 210 +1.5% -8.1% 98% 2% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 2% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -17.1%
15% -24.9% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses206 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)210 / 217
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election? No 99¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 17h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 99¢ $20 29h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 99¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $14 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.01 · official $139.85 (match) · 428 history records