Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x96c7…60bb
world · 83 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage521d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 3 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+432%)
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 51¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 −$3 -8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $59 +$2 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $3 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $78 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $16 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $37 +$5 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $68 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $3 −$1 -38%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $154 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $8 $0 +4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $154 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $3 $0 -5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $83 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% +$6
politics 23% −$6
other 22% −$6
sports 13% −$2
economics 5% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $11 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $27 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $31 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $34 16h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $8 22h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $8 24h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $49 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $36 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $43 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $22 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $6 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $22 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 +10.7% +0.2% 46% 12% -8.7%
≤90d 74 +3.4% -6.4% 36% 7% -9.4%
all 80 -3.1% -12.3% 34% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 6% -9.8%
10% -20.7% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.64 · official $11.15 (match) · 334 history records