Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
96 0x96c3…d0ef crypto 470 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized +$474 · open −$525
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate63%291W / 172L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,109
other 0% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -25.7% -32.8% 41% 25% -29.0%
≤30d 254 -1.7% -11.0% 57% 42% -11.5%
≤90d 463 -4.1% -13.3% 63% 33% -11.6%
all 463 -4.1% -13.3% 63% 33% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 33% -11.6%
10% -21.6% 20% -20.1%
15% -29.2% 13% -27.8%
20% -36.1% 8% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$64 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$1,163
Realized+$474
Unrealized−$525
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses291 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)463 / 470
History coverage70d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Yes 53¢ 69¢ $455 $588 +$133 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? No 87¢ 96¢ $199 $218 +$19 (+10%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? Yes 52¢ 14¢ $403 $113 −$291 (-72%)
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? No 86¢ 91¢ $99 $105 +$6 (+6%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 66¢ 14¢ $498 $105 −$393 (-79%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $19 $26 +$7 (+39%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? Yes 36¢ 22¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +46%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? Jun 16 $41 −$33 -80%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$6 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$23 +116%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 16? Jun 16 $93 +$15 +16%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Jun 16 $202 −$69 -34%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $386 −$132 -34%
Will XRP reach $1.30 June 15-21? Jun 15 $305 −$97 -32%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 15? Jun 15 $41 −$38 -94%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? Jun 15 $439 +$403 +92%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 15? Jun 15 $265 +$150 +57%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 15 $204 −$99 -48%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $426 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $218 +$39 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 15? Jun 15 $265 +$165 +62%
Will XRP reach $1.20 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $328 −$29 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $231 −$212 -92%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $1,033 −$471 -46%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 14? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 14? Jun 14 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $126 −$34 -27%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 14 $1,625 −$268 -16%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $182 −$179 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $201 +$35 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $266 −$86 -32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 13 $74 +$10 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $105 +$20 +19%
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 12? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 13 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $90 −$4 -4%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -80%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $5,875 −$1,058 -18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? Jun 12 $433 −$204 -47%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $207 −$198 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $3,586 −$1,441 -40%
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 11? Jun 11 $139 −$139 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 11? Jun 11 $71 −$68 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $41 −$39 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$29 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $16 58m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 17? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 3h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 53¢ $306 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 22h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? SELL Yes 34¢ $36 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 37¢ $43 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 23h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 24h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 24h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 16? SELL Yes 57¢ $108 24h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? SELL No 53¢ $133 25h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $82 25h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 60¢ $254 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 88¢ $386 28h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 77¢ $202 34h
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? BUY No 86¢ $100 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 87¢ $201 34h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 34h
Will XRP reach $1.30 June 15-21? SELL Yes 51¢ $208 39h
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 39h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $303 45h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? BUY Yes 65¢ $204 46h
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 46h
Will XRP reach $1.30 June 15-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $305 46h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $74 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,163.43 · official $1,142.06 · 1574 history records