Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96bf…6397 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-6%) realized +$57 · open −$76
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$83
world 38% −$2
politics 10% −$24
economics 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +40.9% +27.5% 50% 50% +118.7%
≤30d 2 +40.9% +27.5% 50% 50% +118.7%
≤90d 20 +43.7% +30.0% 25% 25% +14.2%
all 24 +55.2% +40.4% 38% 33% +46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.4% 33% +46.9%
10% +27.0% 29% +32.8%
15% +14.7% 21% +20.0%
20% +3.5% 17% +8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +135% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$4 · ×5.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions8
Markets (closed)24 / 32
History coverage589d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 34¢ 14¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-57%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-82%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 10¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 13¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 28¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$60 +147%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 17 $1 −$1 -65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $5 +$5 +93%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1 +$27 +2723%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 07 $48 +$14 +28%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei seen in public by February 28? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Apr 05 $24 −$10 -40%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-03-02? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei seen in public by March 1? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 2? Feb 28 $20 +$75 +376%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 45d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $1 46d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 46d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 71d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL Yes $6 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? BUY Yes 77¢ $48 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes $1 71d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes $1 73d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 73d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes $1 73d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 73d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? BUY Yes $1 73d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? BUY Yes $1 73d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes $1 73d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY Yes $5 74d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes $1 79d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes $1 88d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes $3 94d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $3 94d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 95d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.25 · official $18.36 (match) · 80 history records