Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

96 0x96b9…a560 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$7,820 (+24%) realized +$11,072 · open −$3,252

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR61%break-even

Win rate94%17W / 1L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$1,707per market

Trades / day22.9pace

Fees−$223est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,188

7 days+$3,486

14 days+$8,290

30 days+$8,290

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +61%

net ROI/market (all)+8.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+26.6%	+14.5%	88%	75%	+22.2%
≤30d	18	+20.1%	+8.7%	94%	61%	+16.2%
≤90d	18	+20.1%	+8.7%	94%	61%	+16.2%
all	18	+20.1%	+8.7%	94%	61%	+16.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover22.9 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+8.7%	61%	+16.2%
10%	-1.7%	22%	+5.1%
15% ← realistic here	-11.2%	22%	-5.0%
20%	-19.9%	17%	-14.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 53% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

29% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,530) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +15% → late +25% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

15.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$495 vs −$122 · ×4.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×69.06 per $1 lost it wins $69.06

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized+$11,072

Unrealized−$3,252

Win rate (resolved)94%

Wins / losses17 / 1

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$223

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage13d

Avg bet$1,707

Trades / day22.9

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	India	82¢	2¢	$3,314	$62	−$3,252 (-98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India	Jun 28	$417	+$9	+2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands	Jun 27	$3,284	+$1,180	+36%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Panama	Jun 25	$308	+$58	+19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies	Jun 24	$1,640	+$360	+22%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Thailand vs Singapore	Jun 23	$1,160	+$840	+72%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Uzbekistan vs Indonesia	Jun 23	$1,800	+$200	+11%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Brazil vs Panama	Jun 23	$1,038	+$961	+93%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Belize	Jun 22	$288	−$122	-42%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland	Jun 20	$1,760	+$240	+14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands	Jun 20	$1,920	+$80	+4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland	Jun 19	$3,155	+$645	+20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland	Jun 18	$5,061	+$3,262	+64%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China	Jun 18	$289	+$36	+12%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand	Jun 18	$398	+$42	+10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands	Jun 17	$49	+$2	+4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh	Jun 17	$2,530	+$310	+12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland	Jun 16	$3,374	+$178	+5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka	Jun 16	$640	+$9	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	69¢	$707	1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	69¢	$122	1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India	SELL Australia	68¢	$426	2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$61	5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$367	5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$7	5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$660	5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$513	5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$22	5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$20	5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$141	5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$21	5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$44	5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$11	5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$186	6h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$147	6h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$51	6h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$73	6h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$29	6h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$11	7h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$70	7h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	88¢	$50	8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands	BUY Pakistan	57¢	$12	29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands	BUY Pakistan	58¢	$232	29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands	BUY Pakistan	57¢	$26	29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands	BUY Pakistan	57¢	$1	29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands	BUY Pakistan	57¢	$51	29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands	BUY Pakistan	57¢	$51	29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands	BUY Pakistan	57¢	$15	29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands	BUY Pakistan	57¢	$148	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.39 · official $62.39 (match) · 334 history records