Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96b8…95b4 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 428d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$1
other 26% −$1
politics 5% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 4% +$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 41% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 41% 0% -9.7%
all 32 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage428d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $82 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $72 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $50 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $59 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $45 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $39 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $13 $0 -4%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 02 $18 $0 +0%
US military action on Yemen before July? Jul 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 29 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 22 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 41m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 41m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $39 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $40 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $20 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $12 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $8 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $24 37h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $22 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $8 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $18 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $18 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records