Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x96b5…f5e7
other · 219 markets active 23h ago
0.0score
+$8,580 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,397 · open −$4,817
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$73,178
Realized+$13,397
Unrealized−$4,817
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses167 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)218 / 219
History coverage191d
Avg bet$13,872
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 218 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5,210
14 days+$14,529
30 days+$14,552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 80¢ $77,995 $73,178 −$4,817 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $69,790 +$210 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 05 $63,000 +$5,000 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $26,123 +$1,277 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $71,880 +$8,042 +11%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $5,780 +$23 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $66,678 +$846 +1%
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026? May 05 $9,970 +$30 +0%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $56,293 +$789 +1%
Will Trump say "Dog" in May? May 02 $321 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $35,324 +$429 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $30,408 +$92 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $30,342 +$58 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $29,730 +$270 +1%
Will Trump dance today? Apr 28 $34,895 +$69 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $64,881 +$461 +1%
Will Trump say "Apprentice" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $2,392 +$12 +0%
Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner Apr 26 $339 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Kennedy" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $386 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Powell" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $489 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Space" or "Moon" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $490 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $546 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Pope" or "Christian" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $568 +$2 +0%
Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Election" 3+ times during WHCA Dinner eve Apr 26 $778 +$11 +1%
Will Trump say "First Lady" or "Movie Star" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $909 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 26 $4,419 +$18 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 26 $41,916 +$170 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 22 $14,756 +$44 +0%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 16 $5,217 +$84 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $39,050 +$350 +1%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $106,574 −$7,739 -7%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $29,970 +$30 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $71,452 +$287 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $69,790 +$140 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $70,645 +$355 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $68,661 +$702 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Mar 31 $69,699 +$675 +1%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 202 Mar 27 $3,641 −$1,528 -42%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 26 $68,703 +$1,762 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20? Mar 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 20? Mar 21 $3,328 +$68 +2%
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers Mar 21 $19,960 +$40 +0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $5,072 +$10 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Mar 18 $19,310 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 18 $130 −$44 -34%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $126,101 +$2,149 +2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $120 +$180 +150%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $195 −$192 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13? Mar 14 $32,923 +$115 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% +$7,151
other 17% +$4,296
politics 15% +$4,054
economics 13% −$10,642
finance 7% +$1,718
crypto 5% +$1,332
tech 3% +$850
sports 2% +$45
culture 0% −$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $4,980 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $14,616 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $3,584 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $128 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $880 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $2,200 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $7,359 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $455 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $282 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $1,027 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $113 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $36 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $44 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $109 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $234 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $88 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $440 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $7,333 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 5 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 20% -4.0%
≤90d 49 -1.7% -11.0% 90% 4% -8.6%
all 218 +0.6% -9.0% 77% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 10% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 7% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 7% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73,177.95 · official $73,177.95 (match) · 3500 history records