Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96ac…2c21 sports 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27,286 (-17%) realized −$27,034 · open −$252
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 116L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,467per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Fees−$1,419est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$620now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$3,783
world 16% −$849
finance 6% −$1,014
other 6% +$1,527
tech 2% −$445
weather 1% −$118
crypto 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -91.7% -92.5% 0% 0% -75.6%
≤30d 46 -79.4% -81.4% 4% 0% -54.3%
≤90d 136 -37.4% -43.4% 15% 4% -14.0%
all 136 -37.4% -43.4% 15% 4% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.4% 4% -14.0%
10% -48.8% 2% -22.2%
15% ← realistic here -53.7% 1% -29.7%
20% -58.3% 1% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 89% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$1,254) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
23.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$359 vs −$137 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$620
Realized−$27,034
Unrealized−$252
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$1,419
Open positions8
Markets (closed)136 / 109
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$1,467
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? No 88¢ 89¢ $477 $481 +$4 (+1%)
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $66 $59 −$7 (-10%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $24 $34 +$10 (+42%)
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? Yes 22¢ 36¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+64%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No 4¢ 3¢ $15 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? No 44¢ 58¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 62¢ 1¢ $196 $3 −$192 (-98%)
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? Yes 34¢ 1¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 26 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m? Jun 26 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Odds Nasralla wins Honduras presidential election Sunday overt 50%? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 38 and 42 million views on day 2 Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 42 and 46 million views on day 2 Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Green New Scam" while addressing the nation on Decembe Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Jun 26 $2 −$82 -3701%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" while addressing the nation on December 17? Jun 26 $347 −$347 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on January 27? Jun 26 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Lot 11 Gustav Klimt’s “Blumenwiese (Blooming Meadow)” sell for 75 Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on January 23? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will ZKsync win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 26 $364 −$561 -154%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? Jun 26 $272 −$254 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 26 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? Jun 26 $287 −$300 -105%
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on D Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Ethereum Foundation win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" while addressing t Jun 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Will GOAT be the highest grossing movie this weekend? Jun 26 $269 −$269 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 26 $0 −$256 -80851%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026? Jun 26 $103 −$104 -101%
Will Wuthering Heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend? Jun 26 $135 −$135 -100%
Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jun 26 $76 −$76 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 26 $140 −$211 -150%
Will Lot 8 Gustav Klimt’s “Bildnis Elisabeth Lederer (Portrait of Elis Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20? Jun 26 $74 −$61 -82%
Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for 15 seconds or more Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on November Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $838 −$81 -10%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 26 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $526 −$5 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $206 −$6 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1,072 −$53 -5%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Jun 12 $18 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1,861 −$226 -12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $561 −$3 -0%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4? Jun 11 $254 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 03 $483 −$259 -54%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 25 $928 −$90 -10%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? May 23 $681 −$61 -9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $4,450 −$58 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 92¢ $183 20m
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 20m
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 27m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 93¢ $163 33m
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? SELL Yes 52¢ $210 34m
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 35m
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 35m
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY Yes 54¢ $44 35m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 93¢ $13 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 93¢ $9 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 92¢ $367 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 93¢ $186 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 93¢ $186 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 90¢ $126 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No 44¢ $6 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 3h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 88¢ $53 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 27¢ $206 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 35¢ $70 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 35¢ $70 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 35¢ $70 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 35¢ $58 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 35¢ $12 3h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 87¢ $17 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $619.50 · official $619.50 (match) · 3500 history records