Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96a8…e998 politics 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$387 (+0%) realized +$388 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%22W / 85L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,086per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$73
other 32% −$200
sports 12% +$667
economics 2% −$3
tech 1% +$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% +$4
crypto 1% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 -15.7% -23.7% 6% 2% -9.4%
all 107 -4.2% -13.3% 21% 10% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 10% -9.2%
10% -21.6% 10% -17.9%
15% -29.2% 8% -25.9%
20% -36.1% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,574) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$8 · ×6.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$1,519
Realized+$388
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses22 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,086
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $767 $766 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $753 $753 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,404 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,146 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $945 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,138 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,425 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,958 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,896 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $574 +$2 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,297 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $2,357 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,092 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,615 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $2,544 −$4 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $3,612 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,570 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $3,044 −$5 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,574 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $3,884 −$5 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $759 +$2 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $3,925 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,379 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,471 −$3 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,481 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,857 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,366 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,258 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,352 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,235 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,799 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,646 −$3 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1,586 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $767 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $626 5h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $627 7h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $727 26h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $728 27h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $561 28h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $561 30h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $753 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,415 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,417 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $944 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $945 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,521 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,523 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,522 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,524 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,408 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,411 7d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,423 7d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,425 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,380 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,382 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,233 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,235 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,038 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,040 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,112 16d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,114 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,078 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,079 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,518.88 · official $1,518.88 (match) · 338 history records