Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96a5…08c5 crypto 1079 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,187 (-12%) realized −$1,187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%522W / 557L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$44
14 days−$66
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$133
sports 22% −$1,198
other 1% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +5.9% -4.2% 53% 53% -16.5%
≤30d 417 +6.8% -3.4% 51% 51% -7.2%
≤90d 1079 +0.9% -8.7% 48% 48% -22.4%
all 1079 +0.9% -8.7% 48% 48% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 48% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 48% -29.9%
15% -25.4% 48% -36.6%
20% -32.7% 48% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses522 / 557
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1079 / 1079
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1079 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$12 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records