Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
96 0x96a5…079f world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1
politics 25% $0
sports 12% $0
other 7% $0
crypto 6% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 75% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 0% -9.2%
all 37 +0.2% -9.3% 32% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage295d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $35 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $19 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $35 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $33 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 02 $36 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Sep 02 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $3 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $13 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $23 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $36 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 35h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $22 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $13 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $36 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $36 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $35 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 14d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $4 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records