Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

96 0x969e…b834 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized −$107 · open +$129

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip

Net edge-45%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$337per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$799now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-42.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-36.2%	-42.3%	50%	50%	-15.2%
≤30d	2	-36.2%	-42.3%	50%	50%	-15.2%
≤90d	2	-36.2%	-42.3%	50%	50%	-15.2%
all	2	-36.2%	-42.3%	50%	50%	-15.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-42.3%	50%	-15.2%
10%	-47.8%	50%	-23.3%
15%	-52.9%	0%	-30.7%
20%	-57.5%	0%	-37.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$153 vs −$200 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$799

Realized−$107

Unrealized+$129

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$337

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29?	Yes	53¢	66¢	$470	$581	+$111 (+24%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$200	$218	+$18 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma	Jun 27	$554	+$153	+28%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims)	Jun 27	$204	−$200	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main	BUY	21¢	$231	14m
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma	SELL Ikram Aliskerov	94¢	$707	33m
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma	BUY Ikram Aliskerov	73¢	$554	48m
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims)	BUY Eric Nolan	27¢	$102	1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims)	BUY Eric Nolan	28¢	$102	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29?	BUY Yes	17¢	$212	15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29?	BUY Yes	53¢	$485	16h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $798.85 · official $1,024.49 · 7 history records